That was one of the messages from economist Shamabeel Eaqub to those attending a People Expo in Oamaru this week, organised by Dairy New Zealand and the Dairy Women’s Network.
Mr Eaqub outlined both global and national economic trends, and spoke about what farming businesses must to do stay successful and attract and retain people.
With so much change and so much uncertainty, the world was becoming harder to make sense of, he said.
People were used to a world that was relatively stable and where global politics “kind of makes sense”.
Dealing with that could feel very overwhelming so it was important to think about what “levers” could be pulled in your own business and industry and focusing on what you could control, he said.
Any business, whether a dairy farming operation or a large listed company, whether cows or planes, was a collection of people working towards a goal, he said.
The dairy industry was shifting; when an industry was growing, it was seen as very attractive but dairy was no longer in that phase, it had gone from growth mode into stable mode, he said.
What technical efficiencies had been able to bring was “extraordinary” but if there were not the right people to apply the likes of AI, then nothing was going to happen.
“Good management, leadership and culture is what is needed.
“You have to be a great farmer but you have to be an even better business person,” he said.
Discussing the issue of churn in the industry, Mr Eaqub said employee-led upskilling did not work but on the job learning did.
He said it was about recruiting and upskilling for success.
Workers wanted money, progression, fulfilment, security and flexibility.
Employers needed to invest in their leadership and culture.
The farming sector was in better health and leading the economic recovery compared to lot of other sectors in New Zealand, he said.
The global economy was very uncertain and financial markets volatile.
“It’s hard to make sense of things we haven’t experienced, we don’t have the tools to make sense of it,” he said.
Mr Eaqub expected New Zealand to find it much more difficult to have the kind of influence it had over the last 80 years.
“We are probably going to see governments around the world far more distracted by military and defence stuff than economic stuff,” he said.
He expected to see a lot more conflict in geopolitics over coming decades, more fiscal pressure as governments spent “tonnes more money” on defence, and a rise in protectionism in a way NZ and the world had not experienced.
He expected it to be difficult to find a political centre and he also expected unorthodox, less durable or credible policy and institutions under attack.
It was likely NZ would find the supply chain being less stable and access to technology affected by politics, he said.
There would be no more global consensus around the likes of climate change; sharing of knowledge would come under attack.
He alleged NZ was in a fortunate position; it was more diversified that it had even been, it had land and a breadth of climatic conditions that provided flexibility and resilience.
It was also “really far away” and the types of pressure escalating issues in the US and Europe were not happening here, he said.
“In some ways, NZ being a small population far away from the world can really be a strength.
“It’s in a better position for the current period than almost every other country.”
The level of economic prosperity would not go back to pre-Covid 19 levels for a long time.
He alleged this recession had been unusual to previous cycles; instead of employers letting go of staff, they had held on to them and sacrificed profit.
While the cost of living affected a lot of people badly, a lot of optimism was returning and, when customers came back, businesses could “fire really quickly”, he said.
