The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment said previous forecasts showed annual gas production falling below 100 petajoules (PJ) by 2029, but revised forecasts indicated that level would be reached by next year.
A petajoule or PJ is a unit measurement of energy use commonly used for large-scale energy use, with one petajoule equal to one million billion joules.
MBIE also said as of January this year, natural gas reserves were down 27% compared to last year – also falling faster than previously estimated.
“In 2024, natural gas proven plus probable (2P) reserves reduced from 1300 PJ to 948 PJ,” MBIE head of data service delivery Karlene Tipler said.
“The reduction in natural gas reserves is largely driven by field operators reducing their estimates of gas readily extractable in the ground by 234 PJ.”
MBIE said contingent gas reserves, or gas that existed in the ground but could not be extracted for various reasons such as economic or technical, increased by 184 PJ or 10% on last year.
“Some of this increase can be attributed to natural gas reserves being downgraded to contingent resources,” Tipler said.
“A significant contributor to this is Pohokura field, which included a large volume of contingent gas which had previously not been reported.”
Tipler said some contingent gas may have the potential to be upgraded to 2P if there were changes to economic or technical conditions.
Government says data proves it’s ‘correct to act now’
Resources Minister Shane Jones said the decline in gas reserves was a “stark reminder” of why the government was seeking greater investment in exploration and production.
“New Zealand needs a secure supply of affordable and reliable gas for industry to continue and for Kiwis to keep the lights on,” Jones said.
“A 27% year-on-year decline in our natural gas reserves is further proof that the Coalition Government has made the right decisions in overturning the oil and gas ban, and is willing to become a cornerstone investor in gas production,” he said.
As part of Budget 2025, the Government announced $200 million over four years for co-investment in new domestic gas field developments.
