New Zealand’s population could eclipse six million before 2040, according to the latest projections released by Stats NZ.
Stats NZ population estimates, projections, and coverage spokesperson Victoria Treliving said net international migration has been the main contributor to New Zealand’s population growth this century, and this is projected to continue.
Two-thirds of the population growth to hit a population of six million is likely to come from net international migration, Stats NZ said, with the remainder to come from natural increase (births less deaths).
The projections also indicated the population will likely increase to around 7 million by 2060, and potentially nearly 8 million by the late 2070s.
NZ’s population is currently 5.3 million.
Older population expected
Stats NZ said the Kiwi population will be much older by the 2060s, with the median age in the late 40s, compared to 38 years currently.
Currently, there are about 900,000 people aged 65 and older in New Zealand. According to the projections, this number will cross 1 million by 2029, and 2 million by around 2070.
“The number of people aged 65 years and over is currently increasing by more than 500 people a week,” said Treliving.
“One in six New Zealanders is now aged 65 and over. By the mid-2030s this will be 1 in 5, and by 2060 about 1 in 4 will be in this age group.
“In the mid-1960s, 1 in 12 New Zealanders were aged 65 years and over.”
Stats NZ said the projections for New Zealand’s population assumes, on average, the following:
- A net migration gain of 42,000 people a year over the next 50 years
- Fertility rates easing from 1.59 births per woman in 2025 to 1.55 in 2051 (period total fertility rate)
- Life expectancy at birth increasing from 80.8 years and 84.0 years respectively for males and females in 2025, to 88.1 years and 90.5 years respectively in 2078 (period life expectancy at birth).