The North Island is set for a wet start to the week as a subtropical low and associated front are expected to bring heavy rain for many.

“Low pressure will mean rain for much of the North Island through at least Tuesday,” NIWA Weather posted to X.

“For some, the rain will be quite heavy, especially over the eastern half of the island.

“While the rain is much needed, too much rain over a short time may result in localised flooding.”

MetService meteorologist Dom Barry said a “Tasman Sea Special” was approaching Aotearoa/New Zealand, with an extended band of rain already affecting parts of Northland.

Rain was forecast to continue southwards as the low pressure system approached, bringing the possibility of heavy rain to many northern and eastern parts of the North Island throughout Tuesday.

Heavy rain watches and warnings have been issued by MetService as a result.

The outlook

An Orange Heavy Rain Warning was issued for Hawke’s Bay where 120mm to 160 mm of rain could be expected through to Wednesday evening, with the biggest accumulation likely south of the Napier-Taupō Road (SH5). Peak hourly rain rates of 15 to 25 mm/h were likely.

Heavy Rain Watches have been issued for Northland, Auckland/Tāmaki Makaurau, Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne/Tairāwhiti and Wairarapa and the Tararua Districts. Some of these may be extended in the future.

Strong easterly winds will be felt across Northland and Tāmaki Makaurau while this system passes today (Monday). There is also a risk of thunderstorms for the likes of Northland today and tomorrow, then Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Tairāwhiti tomorrow only.

Barry said: “As the low moves southeastwards across the Motu, we can expect areas such as Marlborough and Northern Canterbury to encounter some wet weather from Tuesday, with the rain mainly remaining in the eastern Te Ika-a-Māui/North Island.”

Thunderstorms were possible in places, MetService said.

MetService advised people to stay up to date with the forecasts which were subject to change.