The biggest election in human history gets underway in India today, where the incumbent Narendra Modi is predicted to take the majority in what would be an almost unprecedented third term.
Close to a billion people are eligible to vote in India’s general election, where polling takes place in seven phases, across six weeks. Election officials will cross rivers, traverse jungles and climb mountains across the huge Asian nation to ensure every person that’s eligible to vote can.
The sheer logistics is a big factor as to why the Indian elections take weeks. Polls close on June 1, with the results released just days later on June 4.
But the outcome of the mammoth democratic exercise appears to be a foregone conclusion. Seventy-three-year-old Narendra Modi’s man of the poor mantra, and religious populism in a majority Hindu nation, has made him the reigning star of Indian politics as the world’s most populous nation of 1.4 billion has also grown to become a major economy on the global stage.
Single and child-free Modi’s positioned himself as the father of a majority Hindu nation — with an air of mystique that’s fuelled his popularity.
University of St Andrew’s Asian Affairs Professor Chris Ogden said Modi has brought a “highly energetic” approach to politics. “He promises a lot in terms of making India big and great on the international stage, and that’s seeping into the psyche of those within India, particularly Indian youth.”
But that’s hiding a more complex reality, in a nation where the gulf between rich and poor in India appears to be growing. And under Modi’s Hindu-first agenda, minorities — especially Muslims — reportedly feel persecuted and swept aside, as do his political opponents and critical media too.
“All those threats against journalists, against dissidents are cutting down the democratic space, so there’s less freedom of speech, so in many ways the democracy is there, but it is gradually being eroded,” Ogden said.
“Certainly internationally, he has been this striding international statesman, promoting India, bringing investment into India… Domestically, he’s maybe a little more divisive.
“Most analysts would now describe it as an ‘electoral autocracy’ so there is an election, but within the system there are lots of biases that help those in charge.”
New Zealand will be watching
India is just one of dozens of countries holding an election this year, in a continent that seems a world away from New Zealand. But what happens there is not irrelevant, with our Government making a Free-Trade Agreement with India a priority, one it would like to see within the next three years.
Ogden said India would likely be a significant partner for New Zealand, but it’s one that won’t be without some compromise.
“Moving forward, New Zealand’s relationship with India, will be very much like that with China,” he says. “Acceptance of negatives, because the positives outweigh them.”
There’s also a huge Indian population here, some 250,000, who are also watching closely, many proud to see the huge economic strides India’s made.
President of Auckland’s Indian Central Association Narendra Bhana says the future of India is looking bright and he believes that brings huge potential for business.
“In terms of doing massive trade with India, there lies massive opportunity for Kiwis… in IT, space, agriculture and technology, there’s good business scope there.”
He says key to that success is to continue to build on the relationship between the two nations. “Indian business is all about building relationships, as long as you start to strengthen those then I’m confident we will start trading with India.”