Treasury’s half-year economic and fiscal update painted a bleak picture late last week, forecasting the country was likely to stay in the red until 2029.
There have also been reports from economists that the recession could be prolonged.
However, hospitality operators who spoke to the Otago Daily Times said they were remaining optimistic for a good summer ahead.
Hospitality NZ Otago branch president Mark Scully said Dunedin’s only real hope over the summer was the arrival of tourists.
“If we see cruise ships and tourism, that’s our best chance. I think New Zealand people are still under the pump.
“We’ve seen the GDP go down in the last two quarters. I think basically we’ll all be hoping to see some money from outside the area.”
Mr Scully said although forward bookings looked reasonable, he had noticed some scaling back before Christmas.
“I think there’s been a definite switch to lunches and vouchers for the staff, rather than big functions at night with open bars. I think the overall spend has been cautious.”
Sarah Hussey, who owns the Perc Cafe, said it had been a “strange year” for her business because roadworks had disrupted much of the usual foot traffic at the Stuart St cafe, but she was hoping for a livelier start in the new year.
“Most days, there’s so many cruise ships, but there’s a lot of people not going away this year.
“I think everyone’s been watching the news, and I think there’s lots of people who are actually sitting around Dunedin.”
Vault 21 owner Andre Shi said it had been a particularly challenging time for the hospitality industry, but with interest rates expected to fall, some people might have some more disposable income.
Other variables included the weather, while he also agreed outside visitors could lead to things picking up.
Closer to home, the fact Lower Stuart St was now fully open could lead to increased foot traffic, he said.
Earlier this month, MetService said it was expecting a hot summer when it issued its first heat alerts for the season.
Hospitality NZ’s Sam McKinnon said that would set hoteliers, restaurants, cafes and bars up for the year.
“We’re hoping that we will have a really strong summer and they will set us up for success in 2025.” — additional reporting RNZ
