If you’re stocking up on Easter eggs for the kids in your supermarket shopping this weekend, you can expect them to cost a little more than they might have in years past.
Rising cocoa prices have put pressure on the price of chocolate, and that’s flowing through to the sort that can be delivered by the Easter Bunny, too.
In 2012, a Cadbury supermarket egg with two chocolate bars was selling for $13.99, or $10.99 or special.
In 2016, the same eggs were cheaper – selling for $9.99.
In 2022, the normal price was displayed at $12.90 but eggs could be found at $9 on special. A 325g pack of Cadbury marshmallow eggs was $9.90 in 2022, or $6.50 on special.
Now, a 325g bag of marshmallow eggs is selling for $12 or $8 on special at Woolworths. General food inflation would normally have pushed the price up to about $7.50 over that period of time.
Cadbury eggs seem to have changed, to include mini eggs rather than chocolate bars. These are retailing for $9.90 at Countdown, down from $15, and a pineapple lumps egg is selling for $12.
Infometrics chief executive Brad Olsen said chocolate prices were higher than a year ago.
Stats NZ data showed a block of chocolate had increased in price by 10%, to an average $5.72 in February. He said that would probably underestimate the amount that some people were paying for chocolate.
He said cocoa prices had tripled since 2020.
“Rising chocolate prices are due to lower cocoa supply from major producing countries in Africa, and the World Bank Commodity Price Index shows cocoa prices sitting three times higher in March 2025 than five years ago, with prices the last two months easing back slightly off record highs.”
He said, if New Zealand chocolate prices had tracked international cocoa prices, a block of chocolate would be selling for more like $15 to $18.
“The fact that domestic chocolate prices have been increasing, but not at the same intense rate as international cocoa prices, shows that higher spot prices for commodities doesn’t immediately hit shelf prices, at least not for chocolate.
“Unlike for something like fuel, usually cocoa supply agreements will be locked in at a certain price for a period, meaning higher prices from lower cocoa production might take longer to hit shelf chocolate prices. It also suggests that chocolate prices this Easter could push higher.“
At Kiwibank, economist Sabrina Delgado agreed it was a supply problem.
“Climate-related production shortfalls, tangled-up supply chains, and increased demand have all played a role in this bitter not sweet situation,” she said.
“According to the International Cocoa Organization, the global cocoa deficit for the 2023/2024 season was estimated at a hefty 440,000 tonnes. And while their February forecast for 2024/2025 predicts a turnaround—a surplus of about 142,000 tonnes—prices have yet to meaningfully follow suit.”
She said cocoa futures were still well above historical levels.
“At the end of 2024, futures contracts for cocoa beans peaked near $12,000 per metric ton. More recently, they’ve cooled to around $8,500—but that’s still nearly triple the $3000 price tag from just two years ago, and miles above the $2600 average we’ve seen since 2008.
“And it doesn’t help that manufacturers also tend to buy well in advance, so even if and when prices drop, it could take a while before those savings show up in the chocolate aisle.”
rnz.co.nz