New Zealand exporters face uncertain times under Donald Trump’s presidency, but strong diplomatic connections could help protect the country’s interests, experts say.
The president-elect’s promised tariffs on imports and potential withdrawal of support for Ukraine could also dramatically reshape geopolitical dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, with warnings that climate change could slide off the agenda.
Former White House official and New Zealander Peter Watson said while Trump’s planned tariffs would have “a chilling effect” on local exports, the country might be partially helped through its existing diplomatic relationships.
“For his part, Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters, Minister of Foreign Affairs, is deeply respected here, well known to senior leadership in the Trump transition.
“I think New Zealand will be served well in this administration by such as Winston and some other very good New Zealand officials,” he said.
“To the extent that there are negative effects, it’s not going to be anti-New Zealand.”
Watson, an investment banker, is an expert in trade policy and he’s served in roles for George Bush, Bill Clinton and Joe Biden’s White House administrations.
He was the chief executive of the US Overseas Investment Corporation and the director of Asian Affairs at the National Security Council.
Watson said Trump’s proposed tariffs would primarily impact US consumers but would create ripple effects for trading partners.
“Tariffs are a tax on users and the others up the distribution chain, so the most negative effect actually will be US households and US taxpayers. That said, it will have a chilling effect on exports such as those from New Zealand.”
Pacific faces climate dialogue challenge under Trump
Speaking to Q+A, Charles Edel, a senior adviser at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said Pacific leaders might need to adopt terms like “resilient infrastructure” to get outcomes on issues such as climate change.
He said “on the surface”, Trump would be less willing to invest in soft power in the region.
Edel said: “The renewed American effort for diplomacy in the Pacific, which has very much been done with much counsel and good advice from New Zealand, is something that is just less appealing to Donald Trump.
“How do you manage relations with the Pacific Island nations, when climate change is no longer part of your political vocabulary? Right? That’s a bigger challenge.
“That said, there are many on Trump’s team who know the strategic importance of the Pacific Island region. In fact, keener attention to this region, I should say, started under Donald Trump’s presidency.”
He continued: “Pacific Island leaders – they know that using the word climate change or the words ‘climate change’ is less likely to be useful in dealing with a Trump presidency.
“Using phrases working with the new administration on initiatives like resilient infrastructure might get them to the same place with a different vocabulary. Will it be harder? Absolutely it will.”
Q+A with Jack Tame is made with the support of New Zealand On Air