A new study predicts the number of people with diabetes in New Zealand will be more than 500,000 by 2044.
Using diabetes data from 2006 to 2019, a computer modelling system was able to predict what’s expected if trends carry on their existing trajectory.
Researchers from University of Otago and University of Waikato found that New Zealand will experience a significant increase in the number of diabetes cases, with type 1 and type 2 combined rising by nearly 90% over the next two decades.
The prevalence of diabetes would increase from around 3.9% of the population (268,248) to 5.0% overall (502,358) – an increase of around 30% when population growth is taken into account, the study published in New Zealand Medical Journal today found.
Lead author and University of Otago, Wellington senior researcher Andrea Teng told 1News the results could be attributed to three main factors.
“One, there’s a population growth over time. Two, there’s ageing – so a lot more people in older age groups [are] more likely to have diabetes. And three, there’s this 30% increase in the prevalence of diabetes,” she said.
“It’s a projection. This is what we’ll expect to happen if the current plan, if what we’re currently doing, is carried on. It doesn’t take into account any step change differences such as if we suddenly introduced a tax on sugary drinks, it doesn’t take into account any of those things that we could put in place to address this.”
Diabetes inequity still prevalent
Using ethnicity data, researchers were able to look at predictions within each group.
They found that by 2044 the combined number of Māori, Pacific and Asian people with diabetes (339,799) would exceed the number of Europeans with the condition (234,717).
The increase was found to be highest for Pacific people, with one in six females and one in seven males affected.
The total number of Māori living with diabetes would increase from 42,930 to 98,146 (129% increase), total Pacific from 38,215 to 106,485 (175% increase), total Asian from 42,933 to 136,084 (218% increase) and total European from 153,016 to 234,717 (53% increase).
The report noted actions should be taken to combat the “striking and inequitable patterning of our projections by ethnicity”, and clinical management should be designed and tailored to work best for Māori, Pacific and Asian populations.
Teng said: “Most worryingly, those current inequities we have didn’t go away. If anything, they got worse. So that’s really concerning that what we’re doing at the moment is not addressing those ethnic differences in diabetes.”
The study said: “The depth of the diabetes epidemic, and the expansive breadth of services required for its management, elevate the need for high-quality evidence on the projected future burden of this complex disease.”
Teng said socioeconomic position and the food environment drove nutrition choices, and affected available resources to make healthy choices.
She said there were evidence-based policies that could address the high rate of diabetes in New Zealand and improve health outcomes.
“Many of them would be a sugary drinks tax, so things that are going to send a very strong, you know, motivation and signal through the whole population that this is a food that’s not helping us, that’s actually directly associated with diabetes and poor outcomes.”
‘Wake up call’
She said the study was a “wake up call to all of us” and that people should be “pressing and advocating for policies that are going to make a difference”.
“That’s things like food taxes, restricting unhealthy food marketing to children, having more place-based measures, making food nutritious and more available in our schools and our communities.
“It’s a big wake up call to our health system, it’s going to cost an awful lot of money.”
She said the increase in diabetes would continue to stretch the healthcare system “towards breaking point”.
“We know things are worse than they were three or four decades ago, things have definitely ramped up in terms of the environment and we can do something about that,” she said.
