New Zealand will scrap the traditional nationwide five-yearly census from 2030 in lieu of a system that uses existing government data, smaller annual surveys, and targeted data collection.
Monthly inflation reporting would also begin from 2027 to provide more frequent and up-to-date economic data, Statistics Minister Shane Reti announced today.
He said the new approach will harness administrative data already collected by government agencies as the primary source of population statistics.
The new approach will rely on government data and targeted surveys, aiming for more timely insights into New Zealand’s population and economy. (Source: 1News)
This data – including tax records, education enrolments, or health data – is already used regularly to produce some statistics.
A smaller annual survey and targeted data collection will verify the data quality and fill gaps, with Stats NZ to work closely with communities to ensure accurate representation of minorities.
Reti said the approach will save time and money while delivering more timely insights into New Zealand’s population, adding that relying on a nationwide census day was “no longer financially viable”.
The morning’s headlines in 90 seconds, including Auckland’s supermarket fire, Trump’s threat to Iran, and how a smart watch could make you fitter. (Source: 1News)
In 2013, the census cost $104 million. A decade later, costs had risen to $325 million, with the next census projected to cost $400 million.
“Despite the unsustainable and escalating costs, successive censuses have been beset with issues or failed to meet expectations,” Reti said.
“By leveraging data already collected by government agencies, we can produce key census statistics every year, better informing decisions that affect people’s lives.”
Reti also said the Government will also spend $16.5 million to introduce a monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 2027, which will measure inflation for New Zealand households by recording changes in the price of goods and service.
The CPI will provide more timely inflation data to help the Government and Reserve Bank respond quickly to cost-of-living pressures and bring the country in line with other advanced economies, he said.
“Inflation affects interest rates, benefit adjustments, and household budgets. Timely data helps ensure Kiwis are better supported in a fast-changing environment.”
Stats NZ will also be allocated funding to align its reporting with updated international macroeconomic standards.
“Modern, internationally aligned statistics will support trade and investment, helping drive economic growth and job creation,” Reti said, adding that the changes represented a “broader reset” for Stats NZ.
“Some outputs have not met the standard expected of a world-class statistics agency. We’re getting back to basics – measuring what matters. Our goal is a modern, efficient, and reliable data system that delivers the insights New Zealand needs now and into the future.”
Meanwhile, the Guardian has reported that plans to scrap the 2031 census in England and Wales have been overturned amid a backlash from statisticians over plans to replace it with alternative sources of data.
They were concerned about the feasibility and cost of bringing together different datasets that may have been collected in different ways.
‘Disproportionate impact’ on marginalised communities
Dr Jesse Whitehead, a senior research fellow at the University of Waikato’s Te Ngira: Institute for Population Research, called today’s announcement “disappointing”.
“High quality data is important, and administrative data has its own challenges, biases, and inconsistencies, which means it is not the same quality as census data. Data from the Census is important for checking the quality of administrative data, and this will no longer be possible under the proposed changes.
“The changes will impact data equity and have a disproportionate impact on Iwi-Māori, Pacific peoples, Rainbow communities, Disabled communities, ethnic communities, and other numerically smaller populations, as well as the availability of geographically granular data which impacts all population groups and particularly rural communities.”
Whitehead – an active member of the Future Census Independent Evaluation Panel – also noted “significant issues around social license”.
“It is not clear whether New Zealanders are willing to trade off not having to complete a census form once every five years, with having their data from service interactions, collected and used in this way. It is also unclear whether agencies are ready to provided the quality, and consistency of administrative data required to replace a full enumeration census, and whether these agencies are resourced to make the changes needed.”
The sentiment was echoed by Dr Liza Bolton, a professional teaching fellow at the University of Auckland, echoed the sentiment, who said the new approach would further exacerbate existing challenges in accessing marginalised and vulnerable communities via the traditional census.
“The investment in surveys and collaboration and consultation with communities required to maintain quality data under this new paradigm should not be underestimated. The ways we measure ourselves evolve — see past changes to ethnicity and recent changes to sex and gender — to match our needs as a society. A census is an incredibly focused tool for this,” she said.
“A ‘modern, efficient, and reliable data system’ is a good goal, but I fear the loss of research lifeblood and the injury of slashing cuts to vulnerable people that this ‘sharpened’ tool may inflict.”