As rain lashes down over Brisbane’s flood-prone suburb of Rocklea, Ryan Gilbert stands under his pergola, watching the water slowly rise and wondering if his home is Alfred’s next target.

The backyard, once a place for BBQs and summer afternoons, is now turning into a soggy, swelling pool of uncertainty.

Originally from Timaru, Gilbert moved to Brisbane a decade ago and has been living in Rocklea for the past year fully aware of its reputation for flooding. But this is his first cyclone, and the past few days have been a waiting game.

“We were pretty prepared, just from hearing through housemates’ families who’ve been through flooding before,” he said. “We weren’t as concerned about the wind as we were about the water.”

With the warnings growing more serious, Ryan and his housemates took all the necessary precautions. Windows taped. Sandbags stacked. Cars moved to higher ground at friends’ houses. Now all they can do is wait. “We’ve just been playing cards for three or four days, keeping an eye on the radar,” he said.

The problem with Cyclone Alfred has been its unpredictability. It was supposed to make landfall days ago, but the system kept shifting, keeping residents on edge.

“At one point, they said we’d be fine. Then overnight it changed. Then it changed again,” he said. “We’ve all just been waiting for Alfred to show up.”

Now that the rain had arrived, Gilbert checks outside every half an hour. “The neighbours’ lawns are just disappearing. It’s creeping up bit by bit.”

Their home still has power and phone service for now. But the next couple of days will be critical. “If the rain doesn’t stop, we’re not sure what it’ll look like.”

Despite the anxiety, Ryan and his housemates are keeping things light.

“We’ve got two dogs, a few beers, and a Labrador that loves to swim. If we have to evacuate, maybe he can drag us out,” he jokes.

The nerves are real, though and Rocklea has a history of major floods.

“We’ve seen the photos from the 2011 floods. If it gets that bad, we’ll have to go,” Gilbert said. “At the end of the day, as long as we’re all safe, that’s what matters.”

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