There are “major gaps” in surveillance of new pathogens from animals and countries should prepare for a pandemic worse than Covid-19 in our lifetimes, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.
Covid-19 technical lead Dr Maria Van Kerkhove also said that New Zealand, being an island nation, was not protected from this risk.
It has been five years this month since scientists believe Covid-19 began to spread from animals to humans, triggering a global pandemic that the WHO estimates to have caused at least 20 million deaths and $16 trillion in lost revenue.
Van Kerkhove told 1News she did not think this pandemic needed to be as bad as it was.
“And in fact, this was not really the big one, we have to prepare for an even worse one.”
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WHO was not trying to scare people, she said, but instead called on them to be prepared.
“Hopefully we won’t have one in our lifetime, but I am sure that we will have another outbreak and another pandemic during our lifetime.”
Surveillance of new human infections has improved but the WHO is highly concerned about “patchy” surveillance of pathogens spreading between animals that could be transmitted to humans.
“Right now, we have some major gaps,” Van Kerkhove said.
When asked if the loss of some specimens was a problem for pandemic preparedness, Van Kerkhove said: “I don’t have direct evidence, because this is not something that’s shared quite widely, that some samples that have been collected over time that are stored in freezers, some of those samples are starting to be destroyed.”
“If we look at coronaviruses, we want to go back in time.”
She said she was also grappling with the impact of geopolitical conflicts taking money from health.
“I do find it striking that there always seems to be money for an aircraft carrier. There always seems to be money for war, but we are yet to provide consistent funding for global health threats.”
There was no place for complacency, she said, and island nations were not exempt from the risk.
“These pathogens do not respect borders.”
Van Kerkhove addressed New Zealand public health experts this week at the Te Niwha conference to relay the latest updates and research from the work of the WHO.
Those attending included Sir Ashley Bloomfield who is currently the interim chief executive for the Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR). Earlier this year, he co-chaired a working group for 196 countries to agree to amendments to the International Health Regulations to better protect health and safety in response to future outbreaks and pandemics.
These included the introduction of a universal definition for a pandemic emergency, a commitment to solidarity and equity on access to medical products and financing, as well of the establishment of a States Parties Committee and the creation of National IHR Authorities.
Sir Ashley said a theme of these negotiations was that developing countries felt there was “an overreaction” from other countries around travel and trade if there was a new variant reported.
“The other issue that developing countries had is that they would often provide samples that were then used to develop vaccines that they could not access. So these are issues that collectively countries need to address.”
The WHO is working alongside New Zealand health leaders to upskill new frontline workers and leaders to reduce burnout.
Sir Ashley said some people in key roles are “quite burnt out”.
“They probably don’t feel they would be able to make the same effort if they were called upon in the near future.”
Te Niwha research director Te Pora Thompson (Ngati Hauā) said: “We cannot go through subsequent pandemics — which we will, we absolutely will — with very tired, very broken people, at all.”
She also reinforced the importance of a diverse workforce to reduce inequities in pandemics.
“There are a few more seats that we need to be pulling up to this table.”
Asked about her own experience with burnout, Van Kerkhove said she was not necessarily the best example of this.
“I’m working through it with my family. I was not present for my kids — I have two little boys — for years.”
Around the world in health systems, “we need a deep bench to be able to work with,” she said.
Noting the praise New Zealand’s Covid response received, she was optimistic Aotearoa could continue at a high standard in future pandemics.
“I think New Zealand can absolutely be a leader.”