The rangatahi vote is key to unlocking the Tāmaki Makaurau seat, says Māori political pundits, and social media will play a crucial part in reaching them.

As early voting opens today, academic and political commentator Professor Ella Henry told TVNZ’s Marae the rangatahi vote would decide who would take out the race.

“Let’s be very clear, around the motu at least another 50,000 Māori turned 18 in the last three years, so they will be first time voters and they are socially connected, and globally very, very aware of what’s going on. So, whoever uses social media well is going to get their vote.”

Labour MP Peeni Henare and former broadcaster Oriini Kaipara were considered front-runners in the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election triggered by the death of its MP, Takutai Tarsh Kemp. Henare held the seat between 2014 and 2023 until Kemp, who ran for Te Pāti Māori, ousted him by a margin of just 42 votes.

Te Tiriti o Waitangi advocate Te Wehi Wright said he was looking forward to seeing where the rangatahi vote landed.

He said in certain areas, such as the Hauraki-Waikato electorate, there were increases in the rangatahi vote, and that was what could make all the difference in Tāmaki Makaurau.

“Whoever can activate the rangatahi vote in this by-election is going to do well. Particularly when we think that the average or median age of voters in Tāmaki is about 27 and so that’s a huge voter demographic.”

But for rangatahi to engage, he said, they needed to see themselves in those decision-making positions.

He added: “We’ve seen the utilisation of social media when it came to the hīkoi, when it came to submissions against the Treaty principles, when it came to submissions against the Regulatory Standards Bill, so they’re there and they are engaged, but there’s just a little bit more that we need to do to make sure that that translates to actual votes.”

He said whoever could do that would do well, but beyond the individual was the bigger picture.

“Outside of whoever wins this election, it’s probably the opportunity for Tāmaki to have a dry run before we get into the big election coming up, so I think an opportunity to really activate the conscious voter, particularly in those rangatahi areas,” said Wright.

Professor Ella Henry

For Henry, regardless of who won in the by-election, there was one group of people who would be better off.

“It’s neck-and-neck, but actually, the real winners are going to be wāhine Māori because, whoever wins, it’s going to mean another Māori woman in parliament which is always a good thing.”

Watch the full panel discussion on Marae at TVNZ+.

Early voting

Voters in the Tāmaki Makaurau electorate can now cast their vote in the by-election with 54 locations opening today in the lead up to election day on September 6.

EasyVote cards were sent out last week which makes the voting process faster, but voters can still vote without them.

Anusha Guler, the Electoral Commission’s deputy chief executive operations, said if voters haven’t received their EasyVote pack by today then it means they are not enrolled or they need to update their address on the electoral roll.

“You can enrol or update your details online at vote.nz. You can also enrol and vote at a voting place.

“Voting places are spread across the electorate where people live and work to make it easy to vote,” said Guler.

Voters are encouraged to check vote.nz for locations and opening hours.

On September 6, 84 polling booths will be open from 9am and will close at 7pm.

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