It has been quite exciting over the past few years to watch the start of decarbonisation and sustainability transitions unfold. There have been shifts in wider thinking, businesses prioritising sustainable actions and a general sense that things were shifting. However, roll onto 2025 and things feel a bit different.
The new President of the United States has stated he will pull out of the Paris Agreement, the EU has been re-looking at their green deal and here in Aotearoa-New Zealand there seems to be a move away from prioritising building a sustainable, resilient society. At face value there is quite a bit to be glum about if you would like to see action for climate change and sustainability. Indeed, I was even wondering what to write about this year …
My perspective shifted when I encountered a social media post referencing the Three Horizons Model’s conceptualisation of our current circumstances. The framework resonated strongly with me and reminded me how this particular moment in history is significant due to the struggle for and resistance to the potential change on the horizon.
The Three Horizons (3H) model is a futures-thinking framework that illustrates how current systems evolve over time and how new (societal) systems might emerge. It was developed by Bill Sharpe and colleagues at the International Futures Forum. The model has gained prominence in sustainability studies because it enables an integration of short-term realities with long-term transformative visions. The 3H model structures thinking around three overlapping temporal “horizons”, each representing a different pattern of thinking, acting, and organising:
Horizon 1 (H1) represents the present dominant system. It is characterised by existing institutions, infrastructure, and patterns of behaviour that shape and influence current practice and ways of doing things. In relation to sustainability, H1 highlights entrenched systems — which have been fossil fuel-based systems, linear consumption economies, individualism and growth. H1 highlights these dominant structures and reveals the limitations and vulnerabilities that might be unsustainable over the long term.
Horizon 2 (H2) is the transitional space where innovative practices start to emerge that challenge the dominant system and illustrate alternatives, yet remain in an emergent state. H2 ideas often arise from start-ups, pilot projects, or policy experiments, and they may not fully replace the incumbent system. This horizon represents the potential for transformative change — pointing to solutions that are not yet mainstream but signal possible pathways towards more sustainable futures. While such solutions often face resistance from established systems (H1), they also build momentum through pioneering initiatives, supportive governance, and shifts in cultural norms.
The final horizon, Horizon 3 (H3), provides the vision of a future system consisting of new paradigms and practices that will become predominant in society. This horizon involves radical innovations in technology, policy, and social change. By considering and pondering H3, organisations and communities can articulate long-term aspirations that ideally inform and shape current decisions.
WHAT IS THE POINT OF THIS THINKING?
The 3H model is useful for several reasons. It illuminates tensions between preserving current systems (H1) and fostering radical transformations (H3) by highlighting a transitional space (H2), where new ideas challenge entrenched structures. The model can help stakeholders, e.g., policymakers, businesses, researchers and civil society to understand which horizon dominates, to assist with developing strategic actions. Furthermore, the model underscores that transformative change depends on improving present systems, nurturing innovative alternatives, and embedding new norms.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
This is a good question to ponder right now. Have we reached a place where the current dominant mode of operation — referred to as H1 — remains firmly in place, yet stands on the cusp of a potential disruption in the near future? If this is the case, then the emergence of H2 and H3 would introduce pressure to shift away from the existing paradigm. This can be seen by the presence of some alternative ways of operating, e.g., green products and services, decarbonised operations. This pressure for a transition to H2 often results in those who benefit or are comfortable in the current mode of H1 resisting the change and often actively doing what they can to prevent the new horizons from taking hold.
Or are we at the first disruption point where H1 is beginning to lose prominence and an H2 horizon is rising in dominance. An example of an H2 horizon in the current context could be the ongoing shift towards circular economy practices. These initiatives move beyond the conventional, linear model of “take, make, dispose” (H1) but have yet to fully achieve the systemic transformation implied by a circular and decarbonised economy (H3). Instead, they occupy a transitional space — experimenting with closed-loop material cycles, waste streams, collaborative consumption and extended product life cycles — where new ideas are tested, refined, and scaled in ways that challenge existing economic structures without yet supplanting them. As these emerging practices — experimenting with closed-loop material cycles, waste streams, collaborative consumption and extended product lifecycles — continue to test and refine new systems of operating without fully supplanting traditional models, there is perhaps an opportunity to envision and actively shape the future.
However, I would caution that the window for being able to shape the future on this planet is closing rapidly. Indeed, I would usually finish on the optimistic note of discussing how we as humans need to think about the future that we want and start to create that horizon now. However, as we have just experienced a +1.5°C world in the past year I wonder if now, human beings may have limited capacity to create the world that we might want in the future. As we already see these impacts from a +1.5°C world, and know from science that the impacts from the 3°C world will be exponential, we may have to realise that the planetary ecosystem may have greater influence than humans on the economic and social systems that can be sustained in our future. The future may actually no longer be in our hands.
• Sara Walton is professor of sustainable business at Ōtākou Whakaihu Waka University of Otago.
