The dilemma for the first big glitzy awards ceremony of the year is this: salute the old or anoint the new? A gaggle of awards favourites came to an end in 2023 – Succession, The Crown, Ted Lasso, Barry, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel – and surely the Globes will want to send them off in style.

Or do they, instead, look to the younger pretenders – The Last of Us, Beef, Poker Face, Slow Horses, The Bear?

Kicking off on January 8 from 2pm NZT, the Golden Globes will not be aired on channels in New Zealand, meaning Kiwi fans will have to try to catch the action online.

Here’s who we think should win the major TV awards at the Golden Globes this week – and who will win.

Best Television Series – Drama

The nominees

  • 1923, Paramount+
  • The Crown, Netflix
  • The Diplomat, Netflix
  • The Last of Us, HBO
  • The Morning Show, Apple TV+
  • Succession, HBO

Who should win: Succession

Awards for Succession and “coals to Newcastle” springs to mind, yet Jesse Armstrong’s bittersweet opus deserves a little more fanfare – we will be talking about it for decades to come and the ending was spectacular. That can’t be said of The Crown or The Morning Show.

Who will win: The Last of Us

The world’s most-loved video game becomes the world’s most-loved TV drama. HBO won’t mind swapping the shiniest crown over from the dastardly Roys to the navel-gazing zombie-squashers Ellie and Joel.

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy

The nominees

  • Abbott Elementary, ABC
  • Barry, HBO
  • The Bear, FX
  • Jury Duty, Amazon Freevee
  • Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
  • Ted Lasso, Apple TV+

Who should win: The Bear

Missed out last year to the decent but derivative Abbott Elementary, the Chicago kitchen-shrink drama has swaggered onto the scene and made itself right at home. The second season perhaps had too much sugar and not enough salt, but this is a unique dish. Repeat after me, however: The Bear Is Not A Comedy (Or A Musical).

Who will win: Only Murders in the Building

After two superb seasons, OMITB stumbled at the third, replacing a drum-tight conceit with a grab-bag of bells, whistles, frills and frou-frou involving a Broadway musical. The Globes, however, loves bells, whistles, frills and frou-frou.

Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television

The nominees

  • All the Light We Cannot See, Netflix
  • Beef, Netflix
  • Daisy Jones & the Six, Prime Video
  • Fargo, FX
  • Fellow Travelers, Showtime
  • Lessons in Chemistry, Apple TV+

Who should win: Beef

Lee Sing Jun’s chaos agent of a comedy-drama – the TV equivalent of a child gleefully chucking a bouncy ball into a fine-china emporium – arrived on Netflix like a smack in the face. When did the streamer last have a great drama? Well, they have one now. And how. Sensational.

Who will win: Beef

Let’s give the Globes some credit. With the exception of Fargo, which refound its form with an excellent fifth season, the other nominees barely deserve to breathe the same air as Beef. There’s a reason all your annoying artsy friends are talking about this show.

Best Performance in a Television Series – Drama: Actor

The nominees

  • Brian Cox, Succession, HBO
  • Kieran Culkin, Succession, HBO
  • Gary Oldman, Slow Horses, Apple TV+
  • Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us, HBO
  • Jeremy Strong, Succession, HBO
  • Dominic West, The Crown, Netflix

Who should win: Gary Oldman

Sure, it looks like Succession vs Succession for this one, but I’d like to see Oldman’s flatulent, ornery Jackson Lamb rewarded. The Oscars fluffed it when they didn’t allow themselves to give Johnny Depp Best Actor for Jack Sparrow – worried, surely, that it was a little cartoony. Oldman has created a pungent instant classic.

Who will win: Pedro Pascal

Oldman, however, doesn’t glower handsomely while looking ravishingly sad. Now that’s acting – according to some. And it should be enough to grant the excellent Pascal this award.

Best Performance in a Television Series – Drama: Actress

The nominees

  • Helen Mirren, 1923, Paramount+
  • Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us, HBO
  • Keri Russell, The Diplomat, Netflix
  • Sarah Snook, Succession, HBO
  • Imelda Staunton, The Crown, Netflix
  • Emma Stone, The Curse, Showtime

Who should win: Emma Stone

A strong field, but Stone has pulled off a harder trick than her fellow nominees. Her Whitney Siegel – a wealthy entrepre-dogooder wanting to break into reality TV – is a fag paper away from American Psycho’s Patrick Bateman. Sure, she doesn’t murder anyone, and on paper she is relatively harmless – but Stone makes her a monster.

Who will win: Helen Mirren

The Globes loves bells, whistles and Taylor Sheridan. The latest Taylorverse (not that one) product will surely walk away with something, and in America they weren’t utterly horrified by Helen Mirren’s attempt at an Irish accent.

Best Performance in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy: Actor

The nominees

  • Bill Hader, Barry, HBO
  • Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
  • Jason Segel, Shrinking, Apple TV+
  • Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
  • Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso, Apple TV+
  • Jeremy Allen White, The Bear, FX

Who should win: Bill Hader

A strange list. All superb actors, having created compelling, memorable characters (Shrinking aside, perhaps), yet none can have been said to have enjoyed a vintage season. Hader’s am-dram hitman, however, deserves recognition.

Who will win: Steve Martin

It’s impossible not to enjoy Martin as Charles-Haden Savage, the washed-up actor turned podcaster/sleuth. No matter how many times I tell people “It wasn’t a patter song”, his “patter song” from series three will likely tip the scales Martin’s way. Why not? It’s Steve Martin!

Best Performance in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy: Actress

The nominees

  • Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs Maisel, Prime Video
  • Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary, ABC
  • Ayo Edebiri, The Bear, FX
  • Elle Fanning, The Great, Hulu
  • Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
  • Natasha Lyonne, Poke Face, Peacock

Who should win: Ayo Edebiri

It’s Not A Comedy. No matter. Edebiri deserves something on her mantelpiece for an effortlessly brilliant turn as the tormented genius sous chef, Sydney. It takes some performance to wrestle attention away from Jeremy Allen-White and Ebon Moss-Bachrach, but she does it.

Who will win: Natasha Lyonne

Lyonne’s millennial Columbo didn’t do a lot for me – essentially: imagine if her character from Russian Doll was Columbo! But I was one of few who weren’t wowed by her gravel-voiced hard-drinking human lie-detector. Would be a very popular choice. Brosnahan will run her close.

Best Performance in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television: Actor

The nominees

  • Matt Bomer, Fellow Travelers, Showtime
  • Sam Claflin, Daisy Jones & the Six, Prime Video
  • Jon Hamm, Fargo, FX
  • Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers, HBO
  • David Oyelowo, Lawmen: Bass Reeves, Paramount+
  • Steven Yeun, Beef, Netflix

Who should win: Woody Harrelson

My heart says Steven Yeun, but I can’t suggest that Beef should win everything, can I? (See below.) Then why not Woody? Harrelson has long excelled in tragicomic heroes, dancing deceptively lightly on the line between serious drama and fourth-wall winking clownery. His Watergate CIA putz is vintage Harrelson.

Who will win: Jon Hamm

He’s done plenty since Don Draper (including a reboot of Chevy Chase’s Fletch films – why, Jon?), but little that has seemed more than a second-gear Hammeo. Enter Sheriff Roy Tillman, a Constitution-loving rancher-preacher who bleeds stars and stripes. It’s been lovely to see Hamm back at full throttle.

Best Performance in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television: Actress

The nominees

  • Riley Keough, Daisy Jones & the Six, Prime Video
  • Brie Larson, Lessons in Chemistry, Apple TV+
  • Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death, Max
  • Juno Temple, Fargo, FX
  • Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers, Prime Video
  • Ali Wong, Beef, Netflix

Who should win: Ali Wong

Wong has long been a fine performer – and an excellent stand-up – but I had no idea she had this in her. Her Amy Lau doesn’t so much as have a midlife-crisis as eat it, regurgitate it, deconstruct it and then sell it back to us as tasteful fine art. Ferocious. Nothing else like it.

Who will win: Riley Keough

We could debate the plusses and negatives of Keough’s performance as the freewheeling Seventies singer Daisy Jones – but the suspicion is simply that the Globes can’t resist giving an award to Elvis’s granddaughter.

Best Performance in a Supporting Role on Television: Actor

The nominees

  • Billy Crudup, The Morning Show, Apple TV+
  • Matthew Macfadyen, Succession, HBO
  • James Marsden, Jury Duty, Amazon Freevee
  • Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear, FX
  • Alan Ruck, Succession, HBO
  • Alexander Skarsgard, Succession, HBO

Who should win: Matthew Macfadyen

Another alpha male Succession pile-up, but this time the show should get the nod. Macfadyen’s Tom Wambsgans is an extraordinary thing – spineless, lily-livered, weak-chinned, yet utterly poisonous. As if Iago was a yuppie. And Tom won!

Who will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Unlike Wambsgans, Moss-Bachrach’s hotheaded Richie is not a one-off – he’s an intense, charismatic, spiteful, decent failure in the Arthur Miller tradition. But that’s to take nothing away from the power of Moss-Bachrach’s performance.

Best Performance in a Supporting Role on Television: Actress

The nominees

  • Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown, Netflix
  • Abby Elliott, The Bear, FX
  • Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets, Showtime
  • J Smith-Cameron, Succession, HBO
  • Meryl Streep, Only Murders in the Building, Hulu
  • Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso, Apple TV+

Who should win: J Smith-Cameron

Another strange list of nominees. Again, you can’t fault any of them. But are you really rooting for any of them to win this one? By default, it should go Smith-Cameron’s beleaguered Gerri.

Who will win: Elizabeth Debicki

They’re going to give it to 1997-era Diana, aren’t they?